Separatists Return to Power in Quebec After Decade in Opposition

Quebec's separatist Parti Québécois is projected to have won enough seats in the provincial election to form a minority government, though it will require the support of rival parties to pursue its signature aim of a fresh vote on independence. The result marks the first time the PQ has held power since 2014, with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon set to become the province's new premier. In his victory speech, he again raised his independence plans but vowed to be "the premier of everyone in Quebec". The outcome could prove a fresh test for Prime Minister Mark Carney, setting up confrontations with Quebec over immigration and the monarchy.

The PQ has pledged to hold a referendum on separating from the rest of Canada. The majority French-speaking province has held such votes before, in 1980 and 1995, and on both occasions the independence movement was defeated. Polls indicate only about 30% of Quebecers back a new vote. St-Pierre Plamondon has previously said the referendum would occur after President Donald Trump leaves office south of the border, explaining that this would require "conditions that allow for an informed and serene debate". The United States and Canada remain locked in a trade war stemming from Trump's tariff programme.

Speaking after Monday's results, the PQ leader said of the potential referendum: "Our national destiny will be achieved one day." To secure the vote he wants, he will need backing from rival parties, potentially including Québec Solidaire, a left-leaning sovereignist party that won nine seats. Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard said his party, which won 40 seats, is prepared to support the PQ on a number of issues, but "there is no way we will collaborate on a potential referendum". Despite winning the most seats of any party, the PQ's share of the popular vote stands at only 28%.

With most votes counted on Tuesday morning, the party was set to win fewer than the 64 seats needed to command a majority in the province's assembly, according to projections from Canadian media. The Liberals, the provincial party with links to Carney's federal Liberals, are projected to have increased their seat count, as have the Conservatives. All parties benefited from the collapse of the Coalition Avenir Québec, previously the province's governing party, which is not projected to have won a single seat.

Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon, saying he looked forward to working with the new provincial leader, adding: "Building a stronger Quebec is at the heart of our mission to build a stronger Canada." The Prime Minister may find himself managing dual unity crises in different parts of the country, depending on the outcome of a vote in Alberta on whether to hold a referendum of its own. Trump is due to leave office in just over two years, meaning that if St-Pierre Plamondon enacts his pledge, a third vote on independence would likely be scheduled for 2029 or 2030.

Separate from the question of independence, the PQ leader has made clear he is willing to fight Ottawa if it is seen as overstepping matters of provincial interest. During the campaign he suggested he would pressure Ottawa on immigration, vowing to fight any increases mandated by the Carney government. He also pledged to "abolish the monarchy in Quebec" and redirect money spent on its institutions to social services. "We are going to do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec, repatriate those funds, and send them to social causes," he told reporters in late September. He suggested defunding Quebec's lieutenant-governor's office, responsible for representing King Charles III in the province, and spending the money instead on tackling homelessness.

St-Pierre Plamondon was among the Quebec lawmakers who refused to pledge allegiance to the King in 2022, paving the way for a provincial law that now makes the oath optional. His plan to withdraw financial support for the lieutenant-governor's office is likely to face significant legal challenges, given the monarchy's central role in Canada's constitution. Such a move would also put future Quebec laws in doubt, as one of the key roles of the lieutenant-governor is to give royal assent to new legislation. Pressed on these hurdles, he told reporters he was ready for a legal battle with the federal government.

Monday's result is in part due to public fatigue with the previous CAQ government. The party made safeguarding Quebec's identity and language central to its eight years in office, but its long-time leader, François Legault, eventually lost significant support among voters. Efforts to revive the party by replacing Legault with a new leader, outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette, were unsuccessful. Fréchette conceded her own re-election race in Trois-Rivières shortly before 22:00 local time, saying in a speech that she would work with St-Pierre Plamondon on the transition. "Governing Quebec is the greatest honour I have ever had," she said. "I have Quebec tattooed on my heart." The Quebec Liberal Party secured the second-most seats, while the Quebec Conservative Party gained seats.

Carney remains popular in Quebec, though support for him had recently dipped as Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada in August, following a breakdown in trade talks. Quebec is among the hardest hit by the latest US tariffs, with experts at the global forecasting firm Oxford Economics projecting a C$2bn blow for the province.