Netanyahu outperforms predictions but path to power remains uncertain

Israel's veteran prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has outperformed expectations in this week's general election, with his Likud party emerging as the largest single party, according to partial results. Yet his existing bloc of ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish partners appears to be just shy of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, leaving the country facing a protracted and uncertain scramble for power.

Analysts caution that the early count may overstate right-wing strength, since it was skewed towards areas with strong support for Netanyahu's camp. Turnout exceeded 77 per cent as Israelis flocked to the polls, a surge that had been widely expected to produce a dramatic deadlock. The high number of uncounted absentee ballots, most of them cast by Israeli soldiers, means a clear picture of the final result may not emerge for another day or two.

The signs are that Netanyahu's principal rival, the former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, would struggle to command a parliamentary majority without the support of parties led by Israel's Arab minority, which have equalled or surpassed their previous record number of seats. Most Jewish opposition parties pledged during the campaign not to work with Arab-majority lists, citing a lack of shared values, though the Arab-led parties could yet emerge as kingmakers should others prove willing to break that taboo. Arab Israelis, who often identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel and make up one fifth of the population, appear to have turned out in unprecedented numbers. Netanyahu, by contrast, would need to persuade one of the smaller opposition parties to join his coalition if he is to secure a majority.

Both men addressed their supporters overnight, each pledging to form the next government. "The right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public, among the Jewish public and all those who support the Jewish state," Netanyahu told a celebrating crowd, though he stopped short of declaring victory. "We must form a strong, national, right-wing government. That is what must be done." Eisenkot struck a different note. "The public has chosen change," he told his Yashar party. "The coalition of failure has lost the people's trust. The Israeli public voted against Benjamin Netanyahu continuing as prime minister." He promised to work with his partners to translate the people's decision into a Zionist government, "stable and good for all of Israel's citizens", and to do so quickly because the country needs to be brought back together.

The election has underscored the deep divisions in Israeli society. It served not only as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership, as he faces a corruption trial on charges he denies, but also as a vote on what kind of country Israel should be. The prime minister and his coalition partners have taken the country on a hardline religious and nationalist trajectory over the past four years, prompting mass protests over their plan for a judicial overhaul before the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 triggered a series of wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Many Israelis want their country more firmly anchored in liberal and secular values. Remarkably, the past four turbulent years appear not to have significantly altered voting patterns. "People expected that after October 7th, Netanyahu will be down the drain or even toppled but it didn't happen," Professor Tamar Hermann, a pollster at the Israeli Democracy Institute, said before the vote.

The main parties have already begun the intense political wrangling that will decide the next government. "Each side will try to pull over defectors, or will try to see if they can make a minority government and will try all these different political kinds of wizardry," the veteran Israeli journalist and author Yaakov Katz said. "But it might not work, and it could take weeks or months to see if someone is actually capable of forming a government." Larger parties typically court smaller ones with promises of cabinet posts, budgets or specific policies. Short of a unity government, that may be Netanyahu's only option, but the opposition parties fought this election on a platform of "anyone but Netanyahu". Much now depends on whether the main opposition change bloc is prepared to break a taboo by seeking a deal with the Arab parties. During the campaign, one of its leaders, the right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman, said he would not sit in a minority government that relied on their support, a sign of the increased mistrust and hostility towards Arab citizens since the 7 October assault. Mansour Abbas, head of Ra'am, the smaller of the two Arab lists, told me he wanted to join the next government, having been part of the diverse coalition that temporarily unseated Netanyahu between 2021 and 2022. He believed potential partners would be more open to an alliance after the election. "All politicians in Israel say one thing before elections and speak a different language after elections," he said. "We have experienced this before, and it does not concern us." Netanyahu and his allies, meanwhile, have already begun an intense campaign of delegitimising the Arab parties, casting their fellow citizens as a threat from within.

After the final results are presented to Israel's largely ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog, next week, he will consult all the leaders of elected parties and ask the candidate who appears most likely to form a coalition to do so. If that candidate cannot assemble a majority within a maximum of six weeks, others could be allowed to try. Should all the haggling fail, a new election will be held in the following months and the entire process repeated. In the meantime, Netanyahu's government stays on in a caretaker role, without the authority to enact major policy changes.