Netanyahu claims victory but falls short as turnout hits two-decade high

Partial results from Israel's general election place Benjamin Netanyahu marginally ahead of his rival, the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, though the veteran prime minister remains short of a parliamentary majority. With 93 per cent of ballots counted, Likud and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies were on course for 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot's Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties in his bloc were set for 48.

Both men insist they should be entrusted with forming a governing coalition. Arab-led parties, projected to win an unprecedented 19 seats, could yet emerge as kingmakers, though all but one of the Jewish parties have pledged not to work with them. Officials on Thursday began counting as many as 480,000 absentee ballots from soldiers, diplomats and hospital patients, a tranche that may alter the final allocation of seats under Israel's proportional representation system.

Once results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult every faction and invite the leader he believes has the best chance of success to form a government, a process that could take weeks. Should that fail, another election would follow. At a meeting in Jerusalem on Wednesday, Herzog praised turnout of 77.7 per cent, the highest in more than two decades. "It is a badge of honour for Israeli society," he said, adding that he expected official results next week and would then begin discussions with every faction. "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections."

Eisenkot declared that the public had "spoken in favour of change" after exit polls projected his Change Bloc at between 52 and 53 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's bloc. "The coalition of failure has lost the people's trust," he told supporters in Tel Aviv, pledging to work with partners to translate the people's decision into a Zionist government. Later polls suggested the blocs were tied on 51 seats, or that Netanyahu held a narrow three-seat lead. Appearing at Likud headquarters, Netanyahu declared his right-wing bloc had won a "great majority" and said it was "forbidden, simply forbidden, to endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties."

Tuesday's election was the first since the deadly Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Israelis treated it as among the most consequential in the country's history, capable of deciding not only their leadership but whether the country continues on its hard-line, religious-nationalist trajectory. Campaign issues included accountability for the security failures that preceded the attacks, the conduct of regional wars, conscription of ultra-Orthodox men, judicial reforms and Israel's international standing.

Avigail Levine, from Kfar Saba, who voted for Naftali Bennett's opposition Beyachad party, said she was disappointed. "I was hoping for new leadership," she told the BBC. "The people in power on 7 October should not be in power now." She said voters were frustrated that Netanyahu had not shouldered responsibility for the events three years ago, when about 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage; her husband's grandmother died at Kibbutz Be'eri. Gal, from Ramat Gan, said he backed Netanyahu because Israelis "cannot relax and live in peace with neighbours when all they want is to erase us from the map". He added that he was "afraid of the strengthening of the Arab political parties".

The two Arab parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List, are set to almost double their representation after a surge in turnout among Arab Israelis, who account for about a fifth of the population and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Mahdi Kabaha, who campaigned near Haifa to mobilise the Arab vote, called the result "historic". "Arab citizens came out and said clearly: we want a real say in this country," he said.

Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, told the BBC that Arab voters were motivated in part by the chance to remove the far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, whom he accused of racism and "provocation against our community". Ben-Gvir, leader of Jewish Power, has called for annexation of the occupied West Bank, Jewish settlement of Gaza and the "voluntary emigration" of Palestinians; several Western countries have sanctioned him for incitement. Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, said on Tuesday night that he hoped "the numbers will work out and we, the Change Bloc and the UAL, can ensure that there are 61 Knesset seats". Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, told partners in Eisenkot's bloc there was an "opportunity to form a change government in partnership" with the Arab parties. "We have no future here if we don't stop being afraid," he wrote on X.

Eisenkot has previously attached conditions to such an alliance, including recognition of Israel as Jewish and democratic and of Hamas as a terrorist organisation that must be destroyed. The right-wing parties in his bloc have rejected the idea outright. "The opposition parties cannot dictate any conditions," Jabareen said, adding that any alternative to the "dangerous, extreme-right-wing government" would require negotiation with the Arab parties. Likud has accused the Arab parties of "stealing" the election, complaining to the Central Elections Committee of "bribery, threats, violence, fraud and the use of prohibited software" without providing evidence; the committee said it would examine the claims in a post-election review.

On Thursday, committee chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg instructed the Shin Bet to investigate what he called "serious suspicions" of "improper influence through foreign funding by external actors operating against Israeli interests". He gave no details, though Haaretz cited a source saying the committee had been presented with a claim that Qatar funded efforts to increase turnout in Arab communities. Likud described the matter as "an attack on democracy aimed at enabling foreign control of the Knesset". Sami Abu Shehadeh, chairman of Balad, which is part of the Joint List, dismissed the allegation: "The losing side is constructing a racist blood libel and calling on the security agencies to use force in order to overturn the election results."