Healey insists benefits bill will fall but Treasury rejects timeline

The Treasury is disputing that the Chancellor, John Healey, suggested to the BBC that the benefits bill will be cut before the next general election. Asked on Radio 4's Today programme whether there would be a cut before polling day, Healey said: "There will be, there will be a reduction in the benefits bill, we'll do that in a Labour way."

Several Treasury sources took issue with that being interpreted as a promise to act by the next election, with one suggesting Healey was explicitly trying to avoid leaving that impression. It suggests ministers are not committed to cutting the benefits bill before the next election. The Chancellor told Today: "I have said clearly and the prime minister has said as well, we have to bring the benefits bill down. You don't do that by crude cuts, especially when people are feeling the cost of living pressures."

He said two "big reports" next month would help the government "map out the way that we need to change the system for the long run", and that the government had "been reducing the rate of increase in the welfare bill". Healey described the current system as "unsustainable" and said the government had a "moral duty" to help the almost one million young people out of work, education or training. Young people would be expected to take up offers of work or training, he said, "and that's the way we can take welfare bills down in the long term".

Asked whether there would be cuts before the next election, the Chancellor said: "There will be a reduction in the benefits bill, we'll do that in a Labour way and we'll do that because it is simply not good for Britain or progressive to have a bigger and bigger benefits bill. And I feel a moral duty to deal with these youngsters that have been written off by previous governments."

A review of disability benefits co-chaired by the Labour minister Sir Stephen Timms, and another on young people not in education, employment or training led by the former minister Alan Milburn, will be published in November. The government is then expected to respond by the end of the year, publishing a policy document setting out proposals, with legislation to follow next year.

The Conservatives accused Labour of being "addicted to welfare", while Reform UK said the Budget did not address the "ballooning" benefits bill. Welfare spending is forecast to rise this year by £19bn to £353bn. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects the figure to reach £431bn in 2031/32, driven primarily by health-related and pensioner benefit spending. Of that forecast, £209.8bn is on pensioners, including the state pension and winter fuel payments, while £110.7bn is on universal credit and legacy equivalents and £69.6bn is on disability benefits such as personal independence payments. The government has already pledged to reform the state pension triple lock from 2030, and further proposals on the welfare system are expected in the coming months.

The Chancellor's remarks followed a response to the Budget from the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, who said the benefits bill was "going up by tens of billions of pounds because this government has put welfare first". She said the country was "overspent, overborrowed, overtaxed, and drowning in an out-of-control welfare system", adding that the Budget was "not bold enough". The Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Ed Davey, said welfare reform "needs to be done right", adding that this should involve "cutting the bill by helping people into work and giving people the care and support they need so that they can work". Helen Miller, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, noted that the government still had "many difficult decisions" to take after failing to flesh out several big issues, including disability benefits and support for young people.