Democrats scent victory as Trump's approval rating sinks below 40%

Americans head to the polls on 3 November to decide how the rest of Donald Trump's presidency will play out. Thousands of races are taking place across the country at different levels of government, but the main event for voters will be electing members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that make up Congress. Both are currently controlled by the Republicans, the president's party. The success or failure of Trump's final two years in office could rest on the outcome.

One reason the opposition Democrats have a chance to take back Congress is the president's low approval rating, a reliable indicator of how well his party might perform. He began his second term with an approval rating of just over 50%, according to the polling resource Silver Bulletin, but it quickly fell into the 40s. It was hovering around 42% when Trump decided to launch air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February. It fell below 40% shortly afterwards and now sits at about 37%.

Eight years ago, Trump's approval rating was significantly higher at this point in his first term, at 43%. Joe Biden's at the same stage was 40%. In both cases, the sitting president lost control of the House in the midterms but kept hold of the Senate. Trump's poor ratings help explain why Democrats are hopeful of winning both chambers, and why they are setting their sights on states that Republicans have won consistently in recent years.

The current Republican majority in the House is as thin as it gets. They hold 218 seats, the exact number needed for control, plus one independent who votes with them. Members of the House serve two-year terms, so all 435 seats are up for election. Most districts are not considered competitive, because the party that holds them has such solid support that there is only one likely winner. The Cook Political Report, which analyses campaigns and elections, suggests that just 21 districts are toss-ups that could be won by either party. Of those, 15 are currently held by Republicans and six by Democrats. If the Democrats win five of them on top of 28 districts classed as likely or leaning Democratic, they will win the House.

Historically, the midterms see a high number of seats changing hands in the House, usually in protest against the White House. The average number lost by the president's party is 27, according to data going back to 1934. Of those 23 elections, the president's party has made gains in only three.

The Republicans have a slightly stronger hold on the Senate. They hold 53 of the 100 seats, while the Democrats have 45 and two independents who also vote with them. Senators serve six-year terms, so roughly a third are up for election every two years. Thirty-five seats are up for grabs in November, but analysis by the Cook Political Report suggests that only seven are toss-ups that could go either way. Of those, six are currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats. The Democrats would need to win four of those seats, plus the four classed as likely or leaning Democratic, to reach 51 and take control.

Winning a majority is no easy task, however. The Democrats need to keep hold of their seat in Michigan, where polls suggest the race is tighter than they would like between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing political outsider, and his Republican rival Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent. They would also need to pick up seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. Yet polls suggest they have a chance, even in Texas, where the former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general and a close Trump ally.

Trump pledged to "end inflation and make America affordable again" during his 2024 campaign, but the cost of living is proving to be the key issue for voters. The president proudly declared that petrol was "now below $2.30 [£1.74] a gallon in most states" in his State of the Union address on 24 February. The war with Iran began four days later, disrupting Middle Eastern energy supplies and causing petrol to hit $4 (£3.03) in the US. The war became increasingly unpopular as its consequences reverberated around the world and ultimately hit American consumers in the pocket. One poll carried out in August found that 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the situation. Other issues voters say are important to them include healthcare and immigration. Trump has recently touted his immigration policies as a big success, citing significantly lower border-crossing figures than in recent years. Many Democratic candidates are focusing on the high cost of US health insurance and the impact of Trump's legislation on access to the healthcare system.

Most signs point towards a successful midterms for the Democrats, but it would not be the first time that Trump and his party have outperformed the polls. One of the few things in their favour is a huge financial advantage. At the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had more than $600m (£455m) cash on hand, while the Democrats had just under $400m (£303m). The Republicans also had more than $400m held by Trump's MAGA Inc group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the Make America Great Again movement. They are using that advantage to buy advertising. More than $1bn worth of political ads were broadcast to US voters in September, according to the research firm AdImpact. Republicans spent $200m more than the Democrats and outspent them in nearly all of the Senate races classed as toss-ups.

Trump will be hoping this late messaging blitz can convince Republicans to turn out in November, boosting turnout and limiting the damage done to him and his party. Whatever the result, attention will quickly turn to the next presidential election in 2028. Trump's unpopularity has dominated the midterms, but with him constitutionally unable to run for a third term, the focus will shift to what the Democrats stand for, not just what they stand against.