A nation at the polls: record turnout, no clear winner and weeks of wrangling ahead

Turnout reached its highest level in more than four decades as Israelis voted in what many regard as one of the most pivotal elections in the country's history. Polling published on Friday suggested Benjamin Netanyahu, the incumbent, was almost neck-and-neck with Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief, in the race to become prime minister. Yet neither of their political blocs was projected to win the 61 seats needed for a majority, meaning weeks or months of political wrangling may lie ahead.

The campaign has been shaped by questions of democracy and security, and the contest is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's rule. Many leading parties complained on Tuesday morning of alleged irregularities at polling stations across the country, though Israel's Central Election Committee said there was no evidence of systematic tampering with ballot slips. Israel's proportional representation system has always produced coalition governments, and the race to power has produced unexpected alliances before. This election, however, looks especially tight, and lines in the sand have already been drawn.

Eisenkot, who leads the newly formed Yashar Party, is the main figure in the so-called change bloc, a collection of parties with ideological differences but a shared goal of ousting Netanyahu. Other leaders in the bloc include the former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both right-wingers with hardline positions on security, and Yair Golan, a left-leaning former general. For Netanyahu, a titan of Israeli politics who first served as prime minister in 1996, a return to power will hinge on another alliance with the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that make up his current governing coalition, the most right-wing in Israel's history. Two Arab party blocs are also in the running, as about one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab, many of whom describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. In theory they could prove kingmakers, but all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them.

Security has dominated the campaign, with the opposition bloc hammering Netanyahu over the unprecedented failure that led to the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken back to Gaza as hostages. They have pushed for an independent commission of inquiry into the attacks, something Netanyahu has long resisted, insisting it would be biased against him. They also point to what they see as threats to democracy under a prime minister who faces an ongoing trial on corruption charges, which he denies, and who is still pursuing contentious plans to reform the judicial system, plans that prompted mass protests before the October attacks.

Despite such attack lines, Netanyahu has once again framed himself as "Mr Security", pointing to what he says are strategic victories in Israel's wars across the Middle East and to his close relationship with President Donald Trump. On Sunday, Israel's Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu had pushed for last-minute military action that could trigger a confrontation with Iran before the elections, but was opposed by his own military chief, Eyal Zamir. The following day, CNN reported that he had also tried to persuade Trump to carry out new strikes on Iran, but that Trump had refused to give the green light. Netanyahu denied both reports. He also made headlines in the final days of the campaign by posting an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv, warning that he was the only leader who could protect Israel if the Iranians acquired nuclear weapons. Eisenkot called him hysterical.

Conscription has been another dominant issue. Netanyahu's government has failed to enforce a Supreme Court ruling that ultra-Orthodox Jewish men in full-time religious study should be conscripted, a highly divisive move given that thousands of others have been called up to fight in recent wars. Eisenkot takes a broadly similar position to Netanyahu on Gaza and has pledged to end Hamas rule in the territory within 18 months, through a US-led peace plan or, if necessary, by military means. Israel has continued to strike Gaza almost every day since a ceasefire was agreed last year, saying it is targeting Hamas operatives. The Israeli military has killed more than 74,000 people since the start of the war, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures the UN considers reliable. Israel has faced growing international condemnation over its conduct in the war, and relations with its allies around the world have deteriorated.

Eisenkot largely supports Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, but wants to crack down on extremist Jewish settlers whose attacks are at an all-time high, according to UN figures. He has also spoken of creating the conditions for autonomy or a state-minus for Palestinians, under ultimate Israeli security control. The two-state solution, the creation of an independent Palestinian state in peaceful coexistence alongside Israel, has all but disappeared from mainstream Israeli politics. Some have speculated that the Arab parties may end up informally propping up an Eisenkot-led minority government, though Lieberman, a key prospective member, has ruled out being part of such an arrangement. Red lines like these make the electoral arithmetic complex, and it remains to be seen what concessions, deals and U-turns can be reached once the results come in.

An unprecedented 70,000 people have reportedly flown home from abroad to vote, while hundreds of thousands are set to cast ballots for the first time. At 22:00 local time on Tuesday, Israeli broadcasters will publish exit polls, which will give some indication of the direction of voting but can vary significantly. Up and down the country, Israelis will gather to watch the results trickle in, with Netanyahu's Likud meeting in Jerusalem and Eisenkot's Yashar, formed only last year, assembling in Tel Aviv. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists will also cast ballots, but many of those votes will not begin being counted until Wednesday, which may produce a late boost for the right-wing parties thought to enjoy strong support in that demographic.

Though the contest is often framed as a run-off between Eisenkot and Netanyahu, another leader could take power by withholding their party's support for a coalition unless given the top job. An outcome dreaded by many is political deadlock, in which no bloc can reach a majority and no minority government can be formed. In that scenario, new elections would be called, with Netanyahu remaining as interim prime minister. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as parties struggled time and again to co-operate.